Two new polls out show Democrat Chris Coons with a large lead over Republican Christine O’Donnell in the race for U.S Senate in Delaware.
A new Public Mind Poll by Fairleigh Dickinson University gives Coons a lead of 17 percentage points, 53 to 36 percent, over O’Donnell with 8 percent undecided. The Public Mind survey spoke to 801 likely voters. The poll’s margin of error is plus or minus 3.5 percent.
A National Agenda Poll produced by the University of Delaware’s Center for Political Communication (CPC) shows Coons up by 19 percentage points over O’Donnell, 49 to 30 percent. When the 13 percent listed as undecided are allocated based on their probable decisions, Coons’ advantage rises to 24 points, 61 to 37 percent. The National Agenda Poll interviewed 901 Delaware residents, 81 percent of which are registered voters. The margin of error is plus or minus 4.1 percent.
“She’s got quite a bit of work to do in a largely Democratic state,” said David Wilson, an associate professor of political science at the University of Delaware, who oversaw the National Agenda Poll. Delaware “has a lot moderate voters, but she is so far to the right in her positions that it’s hurting her in pulling away votes.”
Both polls found O’Donnell’s support weak in key areas.
UD’s National Agenda Poll indicates that only 34 percent of O’Donnell supporters would be “very disappointed” if she lost. By comparison, 63 percent of Coons supporters said they would be “very disappointed” if he failed to win the seat.
The Public Mind Poll suggests that O’Donnell has yet to fully connect with voters, despite having higher name recognition than Coons (97 to 93 percent). “I think there’s not a lot of depth to [O’Donnell’s] name recognition,” said Public Mind survey analyst Dan Cassino, a professor of political science at Fairleigh Dickinson. “To some extent there is a caricature of Christine O’Donnell that’s been going around, and so there is certainly an opportunity to change that. I think the campaign has taken some steps [with O'Donnell's new television advertisement] to try and do that.”
Cassino says the Public Mind Poll shows that O’Donnell can close the gap among Republican voters. While 85 percent of Democrats polled said they will vote for Coons, only 68 percent of Republicans are ready to cast a ballot for O’Donnell. “There is some room for Christine O’Donnell to change that way she is perceived, especially among conservative voters,” said Cassino. “Conservative voters may agree with her on fiscal policy, on social issues, on a lot of other issues, but they’re being distracted by this constant flow of revelations about her personal history. So I think if she can convince those voters to move past these revelations, and instead focus on fiscal policy, I think she has a much better chance among them.”
“O’Donnell has been hurt by the different portrayals of her out there about here finances, her education, and her comments on past television shows,” said Wilson. “Coons’ camp has been able to focus on Delaware voters, while O’Donnell’s campaign has been distracted.”
Cassino sees upcoming debates as an opportunity for O’Donnell to gain ground.
For Christine O’Donnell to publicly debate Chris Coons is “going to be critical because it’s her opportunity to define herself apart from the way other people have defined her in the past,” observed Cassino. “She has to first define herself to her conservative base—get them to mobilize. Once she can do that, then she can start moving on to New Castle County and moving on to independent voters.”
Delaware First Media and the University of Delaware will present a public debate between Chris Coons and Christine O’Donnell Wednesday, October 13 at UD’s Mitchell Hall. The 90-minute debate starts at 7:30. CNN will broadcast the first hour of the debate live. For more information on viewing the event, visit Delaware Debates 2010.
