DFM News’ five part series on the potential impact of sea level rise in Delaware concludes with a look at what’s being done now to plan for the future.
As ocean waters edge inland, policymakers are presented with the vast, complex challenge of assessing vulnerabilities and planning for a future in which floods will be more frequent, storms more violent, and coastal areas less habitable.
Authorities such as the Delaware Department of Natural Resources and Environmental Control (DNREC) are engaged in a process of gathering data, identifying the scope of the problem, advising on the solutions, and helping coastal communities prepare for higher water levels.
DNREC’s Coastal Programs Section is leading a multi-year Sea Level Rise Initiative, aimed at reducing Delaware’s future vulnerability to the effects of sea level rise. Among the programs created under the Sea Level Rise Initiative are a study of marsh vulnerability, the development of coastal inundation maps, and the formation of a coastal flood monitoring system.
The initiative is using its accumulating expertise to create action plans for threatened communities like New Castle and Bowers Beach, and to develop a statewide policy to respond to seas that DNREC expects will rise by 1 meter over the next 100 years.
The agency’s work will help it manage the response to sea-level rise that is already underway. That response includes avoiding building on the most vulnerable areas; strengthening structures such as seawalls and dikes, and raising buildings or roads above anticipated flood levels.
“Coastal areas, particularly in the mid-Atlantic states, will likely see an increased rate of sea-level rise,” that represents a three-fold increase in the historic rate, DNREC’s Coastal Programs unit said in an overview of its work.
Current projects include updating a history of coastal storms, a bank of data that was previously compiled by the University of Delaware up to 1974, and will now be extended to 2009. Historical storm data can be used to anticipate future weather patterns, and help adapt to new realities.
On a much longer historical timeline, sea-level rise over thousands of years is being studied for clues on how the land will be affected in future, said Kelvin Ramsey of the Delaware Geological Survey at the University of Delaware, which is working with the state to analyze and predict rising sea levels.
“If you see what sort of area was flooded during that period of time, you can see how it affected the coast,” Ramsey said.
To determine the location and extent of future coastal flooding, officials are also developing inundation maps, using data from tide gauges at Breakwater Harbor, Lewes and Reedy Point, Delaware City to establish storm surge elevations. The results will be used to determine which areas would be inundated under different scenarios.
Officials also need public support and acceptance that sea-level rise is a current reality rather than just a distant scenario. That’s why communication and outreach is an important part of the state’s policy.
DNREC has set up an outreach strategy committee consisting of educators, marketers and communications specialists to develop a plan for educating the public on sea-level rise. The panel’s work will be informed by a 2010 survey that shows only a third of Delawareans were concerned about sea-level rise and that the issue was at the bottom of public concerns on both national and environmental matters.
The public has a growing awareness of the issue, said David Carter, environmental program manager with Delaware Coastal Programs, but it has a way to go given that projections for rising seas are the best part of a century away.
“How can you change the way people are thinking?” he asked.
Ron Hunsicker, mayor of Bowers Beach in Kent County, said he can only plan for 10 years ahead, and that planning for something that may happen in 90 years is beyond him.
“To try to implement policy 90 years ahead on something as vague as this report – it’s impossible,” he said, referring to recent recommendations for flood-control measures in his community.
Hunsicker also rejected the notion that Bowers Beach – which already has a chronic flooding problem — might eventually be forced to move inland if it’s inundated by rising ocean waters.
Under those circumstances, Hunsicker said he would simply move to a different place rather than relocate to some inland area of Delaware.
“I would move to some other place where I could be close to the water and close to the sand,” he said. “That’s why I’m here.”
Previously: Part I – Rising seas threaten Delaware coast, test policymakers.
Part II – City of New Castle plans dike repair to repel rising seas.
Part III – Distant scenario or current menace in Kent County?
Part IV – Lewes braces for ‘greatest threat’ of sea-level rise
